Polish election summary (1/8)So, the Polish parliamentary elections have been brought to a close, and the votes have been tallied.
Here are some stats regarding the election itself 74% voter turnout – the biggest in Polish history, phenomenal win for democracy (even the 1989 election did not have that high of a number) 41% referendum turn out – this means that almost half of the people that voted have actively chosen to reject the sham referendum. As the 50% threshold was not reached, it will not be legally binding Over 600k people voting abroad – another record broken People were waiting till 3AM in some places to vote – technically the polling stations closed at 9PM, but there were so many people wanting to vote that the stations had to stay open all night to serve everybody
Polish election summary (2/8)Here are the Sejm results for each party, along with some commentary from me (updated for final results): Prawo i Sprawiedliwość - 194 seats, 35,38% of votes – giant, insane loss for them. The internal factions are jumping at each others throats, there is no amount of corruption and bribery that could buy them enough seats to gain majority. President Duda is hinting that he might distance himself from the party and go neutral. The party could also splinter into smaller factions if the internal struggle gets out of hand. Koalicja Obywatelska - 157 seats, 30,70% of votes – Obviously giant win. Tusk will probably continue being the face of the opposition government, and become the prime minister again. Trzecia Droga - 65 seats, 14,40% of votes – arguably biggest winner of the election. They themselves did not expect to win so much, so they will probably get a lot more leverage within the government than initially predicted.
Polish election summary (3/8)Lewica - 26 seats, 8,61% of votes – a victory, albeit a disappointing one. They lost seats in comparison to the 2019 parliament, but still, without them the opposition cannot maintain a majority, which will allow them to leverage social reforms (more on that later) Konfederacja - 18 seats, 7,16% of votes – RIPBOZO REST IN PISS YOU WONT BE MISSED – the fascists have proved that they are a bunch of angry keyboard warriors and have immediately jumped at each others throats and pointing fingers as to why their result was so bad. Even if they would team up with PiS they will not have a majority. They will likely either splinter into smaller parties and serve as the laughing stock of the parliament
The rest of votes went to irrelevant political plankton, no seats for them. Surprisingly, it seems the German minority did not secure a seat, for the first time since 2005.
Polish election summary (4/8)The opposition also had a crushing victory in the senate – 66 seats went to them and 34 to PiS (Konfederacja got none thankfully). They had a majority there since 2019, but by a very slim margin.
Now, here are some thoughts from me on what this means for the future of Poland (just what comes to my mind, I might be wrong ofc, I'm hardly a political scientist haha): All the 3 opposition parties are RABIDLY pro-EU compared to PiS. Poland could very well go from being the main pain in the ass of the union to being one of it’s most active and unionist members, leaving Hungary and Slovakia alone. This is of course fantastic news for the rest of the continent. Duda will most likely turn neutral and just not block anything that the opposition wants to pass – he technically can block every bill since the opposition will not have a strong majority to overturn a presidential veto, but I doubt he wants the last 2 years of his term to leave a legacy of a defiant, passive blocker
Polish election summary (5/8)Every single socially harmful law that was passed in the past (for instance the abortion laws) will be reversed. We can expect Poland to become more progressive socially, but the main question is to what degree. KO are boring euro-liberals, TD are christian euro-liberal-centrists (as strange as that sounds) and Lewica are social democrats. The last one will be pushing for the most progressive and left leaning policies while the others will likely water them down, but as long as they cannot form a majority without Lewica, they will be able to keep up the leverage and argue in favor of them non-stop.
At the very least, based on the program of each party, we can expect abortion up to 12th week of pregnancy, stronger separation of church and state, civil unions, anti-discrimination laws, easier transition procedures and perhaps same-sex marriages. Same-sex adoption and other more progressive things are unlikely during this term I’m sad to say (though maybe I’ll be surprised).
Polish election summary (6/8)Economically, there will be probably tons of disagreement. KO are still a very capitalist party when compared to Lewica – the latter have been pushing for things like a 35 hour work week, which I cannot see KO agreeing to ever. Frankly, this one is the biggest question in my head and have no idea how this will go. On climate issues, the parties generally see eye to eye. We can definitely see more rapid escape from coal, more investments in nuclear and green energy, recycling, sustainability and so forth. I feel like this topic will be handled well no matter what.
Polish election summary (7/8), closing thoughts, hopeAs a closing summary, I finally feel proper hope for this country. I’ve seen Poland go from an quickly developing, constantly more progressive country, to one that had it's future stolen away by regressive, corrupt, conservative fascists.
During the past 20 years, we went from a country that had one of the first transgender MPs in the world, to one that actively oppresses women and hunts down queer folk. The 2015 election was the beginning of a painful decade - one that hopefully has finally came to an end.
Polish election summary (8/8), closing thoughts, hopeThings could certainly be much better. The overwhelming part of the opposition are libs, but seeing how aggressively political and mobilized the young voters became during this election proves that we can put enough pressure on the politicians to make our voice heard. Millennials and Gen Z are becoming more and more left wing with each year. In the beginning of the next year we have the European and local elections as well to prove that point further.
It’s not gonna be perfect. But it’s gonna be better. And I’m certain with all the amazing Polish queer folk that I’ve met during this difficult period, that we will be able to turn the better into fantastic in the end.
Poland will yet be the queer, progressive, diverse heart of Europe, just like in my dreams.
Polish election summary (8/8), closing thoughts, hope@endali actually KO+TD could push extremely bad shit because konfa has 18 seats and that results in 240 seats, so while yes Lewica will be in the coalition, tusk still can pull a card out of the sleeve and do another Balcerowicz-ass move
